MACRO VALUATION LAB

Earnings Growth Deceleration & Bubble Risk Modeler

Yahoo Finance / Goldman Sachs Thesis:
“There are growing concerns of 'earnings bubble' and Goldman Sachs expects earnings growth to decelerate, but not collapse.”
Research Ref: GS-EQ26
MACRO EARNINGS PARAMETERS
S&P 500 Baseline Growth 8.5%
Previous consensus annual earnings growth expectation
Deceleration Target Rate 3.2%
Simulated decelerated earnings trajectory
Forward P/E Multiple 21.5x
Current aggregate market valuation multiple
Exogenous Shock Probability 25%
Macro liquidity / rate spike shock weight
SECTOR BUBBLE EXPOSURE WEIGHTS
Allocate portfolio sector exposure (re-scaled to 100%)
Tech & AI 35%
Healthcare 30%
Industrials 20%
Financials 15%
Projected EPS Growth
3.20%
Goldman Sachs Target
Stress P/E Ratio
18.30
-3.20 multiple contraction
Multiple Compression Factor
14.88%
Valuation valuation headwind
Stress Risk Regime
Controlled Deceleration (No Collapse)
Goldman Sachs View

Earnings Growth & Multiple Contraction Trajectory

Quarterly earnings progression: Baseline Consensus vs Simulated Deceleration

Consensus Peak Simulated Deceleration Hard Collapse Barrier

Sector Bubble Risk & Multiple De-rating Matrix

Estimated earnings sensitivity and potential valuation drawdown across sectors

Model Ready: True
Sector Segment Portfolio Weight Implied EPS Impact Adjusted P/E Valuation Drawdown Status
All parameters calibrated to Goldman Sachs deceleration model. Click “Export Stress Brief” for full CSV/JSON brief. Audit Validated • Real-time Local Compute
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