Earthquake Rescue Timeline Explorer | Golden Hour Survival Dynamics

Preset Disaster Scenarios

Seismic Parameters

Magnitude (Mw) 6.2

Focal Depth (km) 10 km

Structural & Urban Vulnerability

Population Density High (4,500/km²)

Building Resilience Code Unreinforced (35%)

Empirical Model: Combines USGS ShakeMap empirical collapse ratios with Maeda/Macintyre search and rescue survival decay dynamics.

24h Day 2 — Golden Window Closing

0-24h: Immediate Rescues

24-72h: Heavy Extraction

72-120h: Dehydration Phase

120-168h: Miracle Recoveries

Survival Probability 52.4% Of trapped victims

Estimated Entrapped 1,420 In collapsed zones

Recovered Alive 744 Cumulatively at 24h

Survival Decay Rate -1.8%/hr Current rate of loss

Dominant Fatal Factors at Current Hour

At Hour 24, severe trauma and mechanical asphyxiation account for early mortality. After 48 hours, dehydration and crush syndrome become primary threats.

Primary Threat: Trauma / Asphyxiation
Structural Collapse Index: Moderate (14.2% structural failure)

Search & Rescue Operational Status

Heavy USAR (Urban Search & Rescue) teams operate with acoustic listening devices and K9 units. The "Golden 72 Hours" window is rapidly expiring.

Optimal Strategy: Surface search & rapid extraction
Resource Strain Level: High (85% capacity utilized)

Understanding Earthquake Golden Hours & Trapped Victim Logistics

As observed in historic seismic disasters such as the Colombia earthquake and major global fault disruptions, the survival rate of individuals entrapped under rubble drops exponentially over time. The first 24 hours ("The Golden Day") offer survival rates exceeding 50% for standard masonry collapse, but survival drops below 10% after 72 hours.

Key variables dictated by ground motion physics include Richter/Moment Magnitude (Mw) and Focal Depth, which together determine the Peak Ground Acceleration (PGA). When shallow focal depth aligns with low building resilience (such as unreinforced masonry or soft-story concrete), pancake collapses occur, drastically increasing the initial entrapped population.