Macro Shocks & Parameters
EGP/USD Pass-Through (%)
12.5%
Simulated Egyptian Pound currency adjustment
Imported Supply Shock (%)
8.0%
Global food/energy import price pressure
Projection Horizon
12 Months
CPI Basket Weights (%)
Total Weight:
100.0%
Simulation Results & Purchasing Power Decay
Status: Active Model
Effective Headline CPI
18.4%
+3.5% vs July Base
Purchasing Power Index
84.5
-15.5% Real Value
Monthly Decay Rate
1.42%
Compounded Monthly
Baseline Inflation Trajectory
User Custom Shock Scenario
Severe Counterfactual (25% Deval + 15% Shock)
Component Breakdown & Horizon Impact
| CPI Component | Basket Weight | Pass-Through Sensitivity | Effective Component Inflation | Contribution to Headline |
|---|
Source Provenance: Based on official Egyptian CAPMAS July urban consumer price index baseline (14.9% YoY acceleration reported via Reuters). Pass-through estimates model exchange rate transmission parameters across food/beverage (0.45), transport (0.35), core goods (0.30), healthcare (0.25), and housing (0.10).