Coalition & Faction Dynamics Simulator: Britain 1980s vs Modern US

Simulating ideological polarization, median voter attrition, base turnout, and first-past-the-post plurality splits

Simulation Parameters 65 Districts FPTP

Party Ideological Anchor (A) 22.0
10: Hard Left / Ultra 35: Center-Left 50: Median
Activist Leverage 68%
Center-Left Split Leakage (SDP/3rd) 22%
Polarization Index 0.74

Projected Seats (65 Total)

Challenger/Labour
16
Incumbent/Tory
43
SDP / 3rd Party
6
⚠️ Plurality Trap Active: Anti-incumbent majority splintered by center-left schism.
Median Divergence Penalty -8.4%
Vote Efficiency Gap 14.8%
Anti-Incumbent Combined Share 53.6%
Incumbent Plurality Cushion +4.8%

Spatial Ideological Distribution & Swing Threshold

Constituency Seat Cartogram (65 Districts)

Constituency Margin Matrix & Flip Exposure

District Lean Baseline Challenger % Incumbent % 3rd Party % Winner Margin
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