Simulation Parameters 65 Districts FPTP
Projected Seats (65 Total)
⚠️ Plurality Trap Active: Anti-incumbent majority splintered by center-left schism.
Median Divergence Penalty
-8.4%
Vote Efficiency Gap
14.8%
Anti-Incumbent Combined Share
53.6%
Incumbent Plurality Cushion
+4.8%
Spatial Ideological Distribution & Swing Threshold
Constituency Seat Cartogram (65 Districts)
Constituency Margin Matrix & Flip Exposure
| District |
Lean Baseline |
Challenger % |
Incumbent % |
3rd Party % |
Winner |
Margin |