Energy Infrastructure Ceasefire Impact Matrix & Price Simulator

DESK ACTIVE: CEASEFIRE STABLE
Source: CNBC (@CNBC) Report · Geopolitical Risk Desk
Critical Infrastructure Grid & Strike Status
Mutual Strike Cessation Accord Halts targeted missile and drone strikes on refineries and electrical hubs
Sector Protection Status (Click to toggle targeted immunity):
Transit Pipelines IMMUNE
Druzhba crude pipeline & regional pumping stations
Export Terminals IMMUNE
Baltic & Black Sea maritime crude loading berths
Refineries IMMUNE
Volga, Ryazan, Kremenchuk downstream complexes
Substations IMMUNE
750kV autotransformers and thermal plant feeds
Market Vulnerability Sliders
Baseline Brent Spot Price: $74.20/bbl
Pre-Ceasefire War Risk Premium: $12.50/bbl
Russia Maritime Export Stability: 94.0%
Ukraine Refining Capacity Online: 82.5%
Real-Time Market Equilibrium & Decay Curve Calculated Just Now
Adjusted Brent Price $65.50 -$8.70 discount
Computed Risk Premium $3.80 -69.6% war-risk
Infra Protection Score 88.5 High Resilience
Supply Stability Index 91.2 Stabilized Flow
Forward 30-Day Brent Risk Curve Projection D3.js Market Surface
Pre-Ceasefire Trajectory
Ceasefire Realized Settlement
Projected Risk Premium Band
Mutual Cessation Defuses Refining Risk Premium STATUS: STABILIZED

Following Trump’s announcement of Ukrainian and Russian assent to halt infrastructure strikes, oil markets are pricing out approximately $8.70/bbl of war risk. Export terminal throughput in Novorossiysk and Primorsk remains protected, shielding European maritime flows.

Refining & Distillate Margin Sensitivity Crude-to-Product Spread

Diesel crack spreads soften as Russian western refinery turnaround and Ukrainian domestic processing risks normalize to baseline seasonal levels.

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