EU Energy Transition Simulator 2025–2035

European Energy Trilemma & Security Simulator

Evaluate power generation portfolios balancing Decarbonization, Geopolitical Security of Supply, and Industrial Competitiveness.

Target Horizon
Strategic Policy Pathway Presets
Grid Operating Condition: Baseline Conditions. Moderate winter load with standard European pipeline and interconnect availability.
Annual Electricity Generation Mix 100% Normalized
Wind (Onshore + Offshore) 22% (660 TWh)
Solar Photovoltaic 12% (360 TWh)
Nuclear Fleet (Baseload) 23% (690 TWh)
Natural Gas (CCGT / Peakers) 19% (570 TWh)
Hydro & Geothermal 13% (390 TWh)
Clean H₂ & Biogas Peakers 2% (60 TWh)
Coal & Lignite Phaseout 9% (270 TWh)
Battery Storage (GW)
30 GW / 120 GWh
Interconnect Capacity
75 GW (EU Sync)
Sustainability Strong
184 gCO₂/kWh
EU 2030 Target: < 95 g/kWh (-48% vs 2020)
Supply Security Moderate
32.4 % Import Exposure
Fossil gas & coal thermal reliance index
Industrial Tariff Marginal Gas
92 € / MWh
Merit-order wholesale clearing price + ETS
Grid Adequacy 0.0 hrs LOLE
0.0 hrs/yr deficit risk
Winter peak unserved energy metric
Trilemma Equilibrium
Scores normalized 0 (Critical) to 100 (Optimal)
Sustainability 68
Security 62
Affordability 65
Stress Simulation: 24h Peak Winter Dispatch (GW)
Simulated hourly demand vs dispatch stack (00:00 to 23:00)
Nuclear
Hydro/Geo
Wind
Solar
Storage Disch.
Gas CCGT
H₂ / Peakers
Coal
Deficit (Load Shed)
Policy Brief & Transition Dynamics (ENTSO-E & REPowerEU Alignment)
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Merit-Order & Industrial Tariffs

European wholesale electricity markets clear using marginal pricing: the last and most expensive generator required to meet demand sets the price for all dispatched power.

  • Natural gas peakers set the marginal clearing price ~65% of winter hours across Central Europe.
  • High renewable penetration depresses midday and windy prices (merit-order cannibalization), but requires capital-intensive firming reserves.
  • EU ETS carbon price (assumed €75–€110/tonne) adds €30–€45/MWh to gas and €65–€90/MWh to coal generation.

Geopolitical Chokepoints &