Policy Levers & Rule Standards
Adjust regulatory mandates or select historical policy trajectories reported by Ars Technica.
Target CO2 Reduction
25.0%
Targeted reduction relative to 1,650 Mt CO2 base power fleet emissions.
Baseline CO2 Fleet (Mt/yr)
1,650 Mt
Coal Phaseout Horizon
10 yrs
Compliance Cost Index
1.20x
Industry capital expenditure multiplier for retrofit technology (CCS / co-firing).
Reporting: Ars Technica (EPA seeks to eliminate GHG rules)
Reference Date: Sept 2026
Baseline Fleet
Modeled Trajectory
Clean Generation %
Projected Emissions
1237.5 Mt
Annual fleet carbon output
CO2 Delta vs Baseline
-412.5 Mt
Net reduction / expansion
Compliance Savings
$14.2B
Capital & operational savings
Health Externalities
$28.5B
Particulate, ozone & climate burden
Net Economic Impact
-$14.3B
Savings minus external costs
| Regulatory Parameter | Simulated Value | Economic / Physical Unit | Standard Variance |
|---|---|---|---|
| Fleet Baseline CO2 (Mt) | 1650.0 | Megatons / Year | EIA Electric Power Survey |
| Target Fleet Reduction | 25.0% | Percent of Fleet Base | Clean Air Act ยง111 Standard |
| Coal Phaseout Horizon | 10 | Calendar Years | Asset Depreciation Curve |
| CCS Gas Turbine Mandate | Enforced (Active) | Binary Standard | 90% Capture Rate Benchmark |
| Projected Annual Emissions | 1237.5 | Megatons CO2 / Year | Post-Rule Implementation |
| Net Economic Balance | -$14.3B | USD Billions / Year | Net Societal Benefit / Deficit |
Simulation State Proof:
At a 25.0% fleet reduction target with a 10-year coal retirement curve and gas CCS mandates, projected power emissions reach 1237.5 Mt CO2/yr (-412.5 Mt delta). Rollback compliance relief yields $14.2B in utility savings against $28.5B in unmitigated health and environmental externalities, delivering a net economic impact of -$14.3B.