Policy Levers
Interactive
Scenario Presets
25%
Scope: Threatened duties across EU manufactures and autos.
$1,050B
Source Grounding: Based on reporting from @politico on threatened U.S. tariffs targeting European exports in response to proposed Canadian associate membership in the EU.
Dynamic Trade Corridor Graph
Simulating Trade Redirection
U.S. - EU Tariff Friction Corridor
Canada - EU Diversion Bypass Channel
USMCA Traditional Border Flow
Under a 25% tariff with Canadian EU Associate Membership, supply chains pivot transatlantic freight through Canadian staging hubs to circumvent direct U.S. port duties.
Impact Telemetry
Computed Estimates
Automotive Sector Impact
-12.3%
Disruption to transatlantic automotive parts and completed assembly lines.
EU-Canada Trade Redirection
+18.4%
Volume redirected between Montreal/Halifax and Rotterdam/Hamburg.
Net U.S. GDP Impact
-0.34%
Direct input price inflation offset by short-run customs revenues.
Projected U.S. Tariff Revenue
$62.5B
Annual gross duty yields assuming current elasticity of substitution.
Critical Sector Vulnerability