🇪🇺 EU & Iceland Accession Matrix Article 49 TEU Analysis

Evaluating 35-Chapter Acquis Pre-Alignment, CFP Derogations & EU Enlargement Optics

Acquis Readiness Score

82.6%

22 chapters pre-aligned (EEA/Schengen)

Accession Timeline

28 mos

Estimated fast-track ratification

Enlargement Momentum

88.4 / 100

High diplomatic optics boost

Sensitive Friction Areas

4 Chapters

Ch. 13 Fisheries, Ch. 11 Agri, Ch. 17 Euro

Policy & Referendum Sandbox Pro-Accession Majority

Scenario Presets

Referendum YES Vote 54.2%

Voter Turnout 78.4%

Common Fisheries Policy (CFP) Derogation

Currency & Monetary Integration

Geopolitical & Enlargement Context

Top Domestic Friction: Fisheries Exclusive Economic Zone (EEZ) management and quota sovereignty

EEA Baseline: 22 Chapters Fully Aligned 22 Pre-aligned | 9 Active | 4 Sensitive

Candidate Country	Status	Open Chapters	Est. Timeline	Optics Boost