European Energy Trilemma Stress Simulator

Trilemma Balance Score

62 / 100

Equilibrium: Severe Friction

Security Margin (Supply Buffer)

91.4%

Target: ≥ 100% adequate

Wholesale Industrial Cost

€142.5 / MWh

Status: High Stress / At Risk

CO2 Reduction vs 1990

48.2%

EU 2030 Target: 55.0%

Stress Presets

Supply Shock & Capacity Controls

Gas Import Reduction (%) 35%

Renewables Addition (GW) 45 GW

Storage / Battery Reserve (GWh) 120 GWh

Grid Annual Demand (TWh) 2850 TWh

Strategic Assessment

Merit order clears on expensive Marginal Peaker Gas units. European industrial electricity costs sit at a 2.8x premium vs US Gulf Coast baseline, triggering competitiveness risks.

Merit-Order Dispatch Stack (€/MWh) Marginal Clearing Price

Trilemma Resilience Radar Security · Cost · Climate

Regional Stress Analysis & Structural Exposure

Zone	Key Risk Vector	Reserve Adequacy	Price Parity vs US	Sovereignty Status