Pathogen & Hypotheses
Competing Expert Hypotheses
1. App-Driven Concurrency
Dense digital hookup networks increase simultaneous partners and core-cluster transmission.
2. Testing Surge / Detection Bias
Post-pandemic screening uptake uncovers previously silent asymptomatic baseline pools.
3. Condom Fatigue / PrEP Offsetting
HIV PrEP adoption lowers barrier prophylaxis, accelerating bacterial STI spread.
4. Treatment Delay & AMR Latency
Diagnostics lag & partial cephalosporin resistance prolong infectious period.
Public Health Interventions
Susceptible
Asymptomatic
Acute Infectious
Treated / Cleared
Week 1 / 52
Epidemic Surveillance Metrics
1.84
Effective R (R_eff)
28%
Infected Prevalence
52%
Asymptomatic Share
12%
Treated / Year
Theoretical Driver Analysis
Concurrency & Clustering: Elevated concurrency bridges core high-activity clusters to peripheral networks, multiplying transmission cycles even with constant individual partner numbers.
Policy Trade-Off Matrix
• Screening Turnaround: Accelerating point-of-care testing by 30% reduces reservoir duration by 2.4 weeks.
• Cluster Contact Tracing: Notifying 60%+ concurrency links halts runaway R_eff propagation.
Scenario Snapshot