European Refinery Crude Allocation & Shock Simulator

Supply Shock Parameters 17.5% Curtailment

Saudi Pipeline Shutdown Cut 100%

Percent cut to European crude deliveries (Baseline 2.40 Mbd)

Refinery Run Rate (Utilization) 82.5%

Operating intake vs regional nameplate capacity (100% = 0% curtailment)

Strategic Reserve Release (SPR) 0.80 Mbd

Emergency stockpiles deployed from IEA/EU member storage

Substitute Crude Matrix 1.10 Mbd

Click alternative crudes to toggle emergency tanker cargoes

EU Crude Allocation & Balance Waterfall LIVE TELEMETRY MODEL

Market Status Severe Supply Deficit & Margin Squeeze Systemic imbalance diagnostic

Unmet Crude Deficit 0.5 Mbd Net short intake capacity

GRM Impact -$8.50/bbl Gross margin compression

Replacement Premium +$14.80/bbl Weighted CIF tanker spread

Curtailment Rate 17.5% Regional throughput cut

Following Saudi Aramco's pipeline halt shutting off 2.40 Mbd of direct deliveries to Mediterranean and Northwest European ports, refiners face an immediate net crude deficit of 0.50 Mbd after deploying 0.80 Mbd from strategic emergency reserves and sourcing 1.10 Mbd in spot replacement cargoes. High replacement premiums averaging +$14.80/bbl trigger severe gross refining margin (GRM) losses of -$8.50/bbl, enforcing a 17.5% regional throughput curtailment.

Source Event: Watcher Guru Breaking Report (Saudi European Allocation Halt) Baseline European Saudi Intake: 2.40 Mbd Analysis: Linear Crude Balance & Replacement Cost Optimizer