Fed Decision Day Rate Probability & Wall Street Expectation Matrix

Decision Parameters September Meeting

Market Implied Probability (25bp Hike) 88%

0% (Full Hold) 50% (Toss-up) 100% (Fully Priced)

Rate Decision Preset

Wall Street Desk Intelligence

Bank of America (BofA) Consensus Lead

September hike projected; Governor Waller expected to formally dissent in favor of steady policy.

Waller Dissent Risk: 74% High Risk

2026 Terminal Target: 4.50%

Primary Dealer Split 18 / 23 Firms

Majority expect hawkish bias in the Summary of Economic Projections (SEP) dot plot.

Effective Rate Floor: 5.25% - 5.50%

Live Yield Curve & Market Shock Telemetry ACTIVE SHOCK: +25 bps

2Y Treasury Yield

4.82%

+6.4 bps

10Y Benchmark

4.31%

+3.1 bps

2s10s Curve Slope

-51 bps

Inverted (-3.3 bps)

US Treasury Curve (Pre-Event Baseline vs. Modeled Shift)

Tenor Sensitivity & Asset Shock Matrix

Tenor	Base Yield	Modeled Yield	Net Shock	DV01 Impact

FED DECISION DAY: MARKETS BRACE FOR A HIKE