Fed Guidance & Yield Curve Volatility Simulator

Guidance Clarity & Regime

Fed Forward Guidance Clarity 20%

0% = Fully Data-Dependent | 100% = Explicit Rate Path Guidance

Macroeconomic Surprises (Shocks)

Core CPI Surprise +25 bps

GDP Growth Surprise -10 bps

Key Term Structure Metrics

10Y Term Premium +48 bps

MOVE Index Proxy 124.5

2Y/10Y Yield Spread 32 bps

95% Rate Band Width 86 bps

Reduced Fed transparency increases market dispersion. As forward guidance clarity drops to 20%, term premiums expand across longer maturities and confidence fan bands widen significantly.

U.S. TREASURY YIELD CURVE & CONFIDENCE ENVELOPE

Spot Yield Curve

95% Uncertainty Fan

Baseline Curve

CROSS-ASSET IMPACT & VOLATILITY MATRIX

2Y Treasury Yield 4.52% +18 bps vs base

10Y Treasury Yield 4.84% +34 bps vs base

Equity Volatility (VIX Est.) 22.4 +4.2 pts

Credit Spreads (IG) 142 bps +16 bps widening

ACTIVE SCENARIO PROOF: Leaner Guidance + Inflation Shock