Policy Variables & Drivers
Interactive Sliders
50 bps
Bond trader demand for immediate rate hikes to defend inflation expectations.
75
Executive public statements, tariff offsets, and political demand for rate cuts.
4.25%
Prior Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) target rate level.
3.1%
Consumer Price Index headline inflation over trailing twelve months.
4.0%
Bureau of Labor Statistics U-3 labor market headline reading.
Collision Assessment
Severe Collision Risk
Chairman Kevin Warsh is squeezed between bond vigilantes demanding a +50 bps tightening cycle and White House insistence on rate reduction.
Target Fed Funds Rate
4.75%
+0.50% vs baseline
10-Year Treasury Yield
4.85%
Term premium + inflation drift
Political Friction Score
82
High executive hostility (0-100)
Economic Outlook
Stagflationary Pressure
Growth & Price Equilibrium
Projected Rate Trajectory & Collision Gap (6 Quarters)
Warsh Compromise vs White House vs Markets
Simulated US Treasury Yield Curve (3M → 30Y)
Inverted / Humped
Executive Policy Brief Summary