Fed Rate Hike Probability & Bank Consensus Matrix

WIRE: @DeItaone (Walter Bloomberg) • 5-Bank October Hike Wall • Consensus: 5/5 Institutions Anticipate 25bp Hike
Projected 2Y Treasury Yield Shift
+18.5 bps
Baseline: 4.60% → Projected: 4.785%
Kalshi Market Odds (Hike vs Hold)
48% / 53%
25bp Hike (48%) vs. Hold (53%)
Institutional Wall Alignment
100% HIKE
5 of 5 Tier-1 Dealers Aligned

Institutional Policy Stance

Toggle institutional models to stress-test consensus shifts
5 DEALERS
Dealer Consensus Note: Goldman Sachs updated their base case following the hawkish September FOMC minutes, joining existing calls from Bank of America, TD Securities, ANZ, and RBC for a further 25bp hike in October.

Kalshi Prediction Market Pricing

Adjust probability distribution between Hold and 25bp Hike contracts
53% HOLD / 48% HIKE
Hold: 53% KALSHI IMPLIED OCT CONTRACT 25bp Hike: 48%
0% Hike (Full Pause) 50% Toss-up 100% Hike (Priced In)
Market Implied Split
UST Term Structure Response

Portfolio & Asset Class Sensitivity

Estimated market valuation and duration reaction given current probabilities
MODEL SENSITIVITY
Asset Class Key Benchmark Duration / Beta Implied Move Risk Stance
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