Scenario Presets
Probability Dial
75%
0% (Hold/Cut)
50% (Coin Toss)
100% (Locked In)
5.50%
Wall Street Consensus Tracker
Goldman Sachs
25 bps Hike
Morgan Stanley
Switched: 25 bps Hike
JPMorgan Chase
Hold (5.25%)
Bank of America
Hold (5.25%)
Source Grounding: Repricing model based on breaking MarketWatch reporting and Federal Reserve interest rate sensitivity matrices. Baseline Fed funds target rate: 5.25%.
S&P 500 Impact
-1.45%
Approx -72.5 index pts
2-Year Treasury Yield
4.88%
+38 bps vs baseline
US Dollar Index (DXY)
+1.80%
Projected: 105.85
Gold (XAU/USD)
-2.30%
Est. ~$2,310 / oz
Cross-Asset Repricing Sensitivity Spectrum
Simulated at 75% Hike Odds
Asset Class Sensitivity Matrix
| Asset Class | Baseline | Repriced Projection | Net Movement | Mechanism |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| S&P 500 (US Equities) | 5,000.00 | 4,927.50 | -1.45% | Equity risk premium compression & higher DCF discount rate |
| 2-Year US Treasury | 4.50% | 4.88% | +38 bps | Direct short-end rate repricing reflecting Fed funds terminal target |
| US Dollar Index (DXY) | 104.00 | 105.87 | +1.80% | Interest rate differential widening vs EUR/JPY |
| Gold (XAU/USD) | $2,364 / oz | $2,309.60 | -2.30% | Rising real yields and opportunity cost headwinds |
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