Fed Rate Hike Probability & Portfolio Impact Workbench

Real-time shock simulator modeling the 25bp September hike consensus, December follow-up prospects, Kalshi-market arbitrage spreads, and multi-asset sensitivity.

“FED HIKE BECOMES THE BASE CASE: Goldman Sachs and JPMorgan now expect a 25bp Fed hike this week after hotter inflation and surging oil. Kalshi puts odds at 80%, broader markets at 87%. JPMorgan expects another hike in December.”

MACRO DRIVERS & CONSENSUS LIVE PARAMETERS

Broader Market Hike Probability (Sept 25bp) 87%

10% (Low) Current: 87% (Consensus) 100% (Locked)

Kalshi Prediction Market Odds 80%

10% (Priced out) Baseline: 80% 100% (Certain)

JPMorgan December Hike Outlook

Additional 25bp tightening priced in Dec

WTI Crude Surge Level ($/bbl) $92.50

Inflation Hotness Index (1 - 10) 8.5 / 10

Portfolio Evaluation Size ($ USD)

PORTFOLIO SHOCK & SENSITIVITY PROFILE UPDATED IN REAL-TIME

Implied Sept Fed Rate 5.50% - 5.75% +25bp Base Case

Terminal Rate Outlook 6.00% Dec Hike Factored

Market Pricing Gap (Kalshi vs Broader) -7.0% Prediction spread arbitrage

Composite Risk Rating High Sensitivity Macro Shock Index

Odds Disparity: Kalshi (80%) vs Broader Market (87%) Arbitrage Opportunity: -7.0%

Kalshi Contract: 80% Fed Funds Futures: 87%

PROJECTED ASSET SHOCK MATRIX & PORTFOLIO IMPACT

Asset Class	Price / Yield Shock	Est. Portfolio Impact	Vulnerability

RECOMMENDED TACTICAL HEDGE

Short Duration / Long Oil / Defensive Equities

High rate sensitivity and surging crude ($92.5/bbl) warrant trimming long-duration growth and scaling into floating rates & energy hedges.