Fed Rate Path & Yield Curve Simulator

Fed Funds Spot

5.25%

Current Target

Taylor Rule Rate

4.65%

-0.60% Gap

2Y - 10Y Yield Spread

-0.42%

Inverted Curve

Implied 12M Cuts

2.4 Cuts

~60 bps easing

Testimony Hawkishness

65 / 100

Cook Grilling Index

Policy Controls & Testimony LIVE ADJUST

Testimony Presets

Testimony Hawkishness 65

Grilling tone, persistent higher-for-longer policy rhetoric (0 = Dovish, 100 = Hawkish).

Core PCE Inflation (%) 2.80%

Federal Reserve's preferred inflation target benchmark (Fed Target = 2.0%).

Unemployment Rate (%) 4.10%

Labor market tightness indicator (Natural Rate U* = 4.0%).

Neutral Real Rate R* (%) 2.75%

Long-run equilibrium policy interest rate estimate.

MONETARY IMPLICATION: Hawkish grilling score of 65 combined with Core PCE at 2.80% supports a prolonged policy pause. Yield curve reflects near-term tightness with 2Y inversion over 10Y.

U.S. Treasury Yield Curve Dynamics ● Current Curve | -- Taylor Benchmark

Next FOMC Meeting Probabilities

Market-implied rate action distribution at upcoming Fed meeting:

Taylor Rule Policy Equation

Formula: r* + π + 0.5(π - π*) + 0.5(u* - u)

• Neutral Rate (r*): 2.75%

• Inflation Gap (π - 2.0%): +0.80%

• Labor Slack Gap (4.0% - u): -0.10%

Prescribed Policy Rate: 4.65%