Fed Rate Probability & Polymarket Implied Yield Forecaster

Target Rate & Probability FOMC October

Polymarket Live Grounding: Cointelegraph reported traders pricing a 56% chance of another 25 bps rate hike in October.

Implied Hike Probability 56%

Hike Magnitude (bps) 25 bps

Base Portfolio Value ($) $100,000

Asset Class Weights Total: 100%

Treasuries (Duration 4.5y) 40%

Equities (Beta 1.0) 30%

Crypto & Speculative (High Beta) 30%

*Sensitivities: Treasuries model bond price discount via duration; Equities model multiples compression; Crypto incorporates liquidity beta.

Adjusted Portfolio

$98,450.00

-$1,550.00 (-1.55%)

Expected Rate Shift

+14.0 bps

Weighted on 56% Polymarket odds

Market Sentiment

Bearish Rate Pressure

Tightening Regime

Total Risk Score

Moderate-High

Asset Beta: 1.55

Yield Impact & Scenario Distribution Live Dynamic Simulation

FOMC Outcome Stress Test Matrix October Meeting Scenarios

Calculates portfolio valuation and asset class shifts under 5 explicit Fed decisions based on your currently configured allocations.

Decision Scenario	Rate Shift	Polymarket Implied Prob	Treasuries ($)	Equities ($)	Crypto ($)	Portfolio Total ($)	Net P&L