Monetary Policy Levers
FOMC TOOLKIT
+25 bps
Federal funds rate increment implemented at this meeting.
5.25%
FOMC median dot-plot expectation for cycle peak.
$60B / mo
Balance sheet runoff velocity (Treasuries + MBS caps).
+0.4σ
Core PCE persistence above FOMC 2.0% objective.
72 / 100
Chairman communication coherence & transparency score.
Macro Scenario Presets
“With a few carefully chosen words, Federal Reserve Chairman Kevin Warsh both explained this week’s decision to hike interest rates and raised vexing questions about what comes next.”
— CNBC Economics Dispatch
U.S. Treasury Yield Curve Simulation
Inverted
Forward Guidance Statement Tone Analyzer
NLP PARSER
Edit the Chairman press conference statement excerpt to evaluate hawkish posture and market credibility impact:
Hawkish Stance
78%
Policy Anchoring
High
Transmission Risk
Elevated
Implied Peak Fed Funds Rate
5.50%
Effective terminal corridor expectation
2Y / 10Y Curve Slope
-43 bps
Depth of yield curve inversion
2-Year Yield
4.85%
10-Year Yield
4.42%
30-Yr Mortgage
6.95%
Fed Credibility
74 / 100
Transmission Impact Summary
A +25 bps hike combined with $60B/mo QT maintains tight financial conditions. The 2s10s spread remains inverted at -43 bps, indicating persistent late-cycle recession caution while mortgage rates settle near 6.95%.