FedExCup Fall Matchup & Probabilities Workbench

Event: Procore Championship / Biltmore Fall Opener | Course: Biltmore Championship Layout (Par 72 · 7,192 yds)

Preset Matchups:

Head-to-Head Probability Engine

Weighted Monte Carlo Strokes Gained Distribution

● LIVE SIM

Projected Winner

Maverick McNealy

58.6%

41.4%

Maverick McNealy (A)

58.6%

Odds Implied: 3.45%

Patton Kizzire (B)

41.4%

Odds Implied: 2.17%

Course Fit Rating

88.4 / 100

High Approach & Par 5 Weight

FedEx Fall Bubble Status

Secure (Top 125)

Rank #82 (Projected +3.2 pts)

Strokes Gained Differential Density 10,000 Iterations

✓ Canonical Matchup Summary Audited State

Projected Winner

Maverick McNealy

Win Probability A

58.6%

Win Probability B

41.4%

Course Fit Score

88.4 / 100

Bubble Status

Secure (Top 125)

FanDuel Implied A

3.45%

Simulation Parameters & Betting Odds

Fine-tune individual player metrics and track implied value

FanDuel / Golfbet Market Feeds Live Odds Feed

Player	Rank	Market Odds	Implied Prob	Model Edge
Maverick McNealy	#82		3.45%	+55.15%
Patton Kizzire	#114		2.17%	+39.23%

Player A: Maverick McNealy (FedEx #82) Total SG: +1.42

Strokes Gained: Total 1.42

Driving Accuracy % 68.4%

Greens in Regulation (GIR) % 71.2%

Player B: Patton Kizzire (FedEx #114) Total SG: +0.98

Strokes Gained: Total 0.98

Driving Accuracy % 64.1%

Greens in Regulation (GIR) % 68.5%

Biltmore Championship Course Calibration Rating: 72.4

Par & Length

72 / 7,192y

Rough Penalty

+0.38 SG

Green Firmness

12.5 Stimpmeter

Course Difficulty Rating Factor 72.4