Live Balance Sheet Waterfall & Capital Depletion ($B)
Real-time Mark-to-Market vs. Liquidity Flight
Gruenberg Post-WWII Crisis Comparative Analysis
Martin Gruenberg identified three major post-WWII US financial threats and warned of a fourth wave driven by regulatory rollback, shadow debt, and CRE concentration:
| Crisis Shockwave | Primary Trigger | Duration / Loss | Run Speed | Regulatory Resolution |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1. 1980s S&L Crisis | Stagflation, 15%+ Fed rates | -32.5% MTM | Slow (Paper/Branch) | FSLIC Insolvency / FIRREA 1989 |
| 2. 2008 GFC | Subprime MBS / Repo Freeze | -28.0% Credit | Wholesale Fast | TARP / Dodd-Frank Wall Street Reform |
| 3. 2023 Regional Panic | Digital Run & HTM Treasuries | -19.4% MTM | 35-50%/day (Mobile) | FDIC Systemic Risk Exception & BTFP |
| 4. Emerging 4th Wave | CRE, Private Credit & Deregulation | -24.5% Hybrid | Cross-Market Rapid | Contagion to non-bank lenders |