First-Pitch Home Run Rarity Explorer | Joshua Báez MLB Debut

🏟️ Trajectory & Strike Zone Simulator

Velo: 106.5 mph

LA: 28.0°

Dist: 412 ft

Hang: 4.75 s

Milestone & Contact Presets:

Pitch Velocity 94 mph

Exit Velocity 106.5 mph

Launch Angle 28.0°

Spray Direction -18° (Pull / LC)

412 ft

Projected Distance

96 ft

Apex Height

.970

Expected xBA / HR%

YES (+37 ft)

Wall Clearance

📊 Career Pitch #1 Rarity Math

~1 in 20,000 PAs

Source Citation (@MLB): "JOSHUA BÁEZ! The @Cardinals prospect homers on the first Major League pitch he sees!"
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Debut Plate Appearance Probability Cascade:

1. Swings at 1st Career MLB Pitch (0-0 count) ~28.4%

2. Makes Fair Batted Ball Contact on Pitch 1 ~13.2%

3. Barrel Contact Rate (>98 mph, 26-30° LA) ~1.45%

          4. HOME RUN on 1st Pitch of Career
          0.0051% (~1 in 19,600)
        

First-Pitch Debut HR Club (Select Sample)

Total in MLB History: ~136

Player	Team	Year	Pitcher
Joshua Báez ⭐	Cardinals	2026	94mph Fastball
Willson Contreras	Cubs	2016	John Lackey
Starling Marte	Pirates	2012	Dallas Keuchel
Daniel Nava (Grand Slam)	Red Sox	2010	Joe Blanton
Mark Quinn	Royals	1999	Mike Oquist
Jay Bell	Indians	1986	David Cone
Will Clark	Giants	1986	Nolan Ryan
Hoyt Wilhelm (HOF Pitcher)	Giants	1952	Dick Hoover

Physics Insights: Joshua Báez squared up a 94 mph 0-0 fastball with high bat speed, generating 106.5 mph exit velocity at a 28° launch angle with backspin (~2150 RPM). The trajectory peaked at 96 feet apex and easily cleared Busch Stadium's 375-foot left-center fence with 37+ feet of margin.