Flight Cancellation Prediction Market & Data Feed Simulator

Preset Disruption Scenarios ⚡

1. Telemetry & Flight Parameters ✈️

Select Aviation Route JFK - ORD

Weather Severity Index (WSI) 0.72

FAA Airspace Ground Stop Advisory Active (85%)

Carrier Baseline Cancellation Rate 3.8%

2. Prediction Market Binary Option 📊

Market YES Price ($0.01 - $0.99) $0.15

Contract Implied Volatility 42.5%

3. Data Feed Dispute Stress-Tester ⚖️

Edge-Case Discrepancy Scenario

Primary Contract Oracle

Feed Dispute Risk High (82/100) FlightAware v Kalshi Legal Exposure

Expected Payoff / Contract $0.85 (No) / $0.15 (Yes) Binary Outcome ($1 Max Settlement)

Implied Cancellation Odds 15.0% Vs Real-World Model: 14.2%

Settlement Vulnerability 78/100 Oracle Discrepancy Sensitivity

Market Depth & Cancellation Event Distribution JFK-ORD

Data Telemetry Pipeline & Settlement Oracle Path Live Dependency Vector

Source Node 1 OPERATIONAL

Airline Operations

Publishing live flight plan adjustments & departure updates.

Telemetry Node 2 DISPUTE RISK

FlightAware API

Proprietary aggregation feed; object of IP lawsuit over prediction derivatives.

Exchange Oracle STRESS TEST

Kalshi Settlement

Binary resolution trigger relies on third-party API definition of "Cancelled".

Terminal Settlement BALANCED

Trader Payout

Contracts settle $1 for Yes or $0 for No based on final API status timestamp.

FlightAware v. Kalshi Case Law & Data Rights Analysis 📖

Legal & Market Structure Evidence Map

In FlightAware v. Kalshi (2024-2025), aviation data provider FlightAware challenged Kalshi's use of its flight tracking data feeds to settle regulated binary flight-cancellation options contracts. FlightAware alleges breach of API Terms of Service, commercial misappropriation, and unauthorized derivative work creation.

Settlement Risk Insight: When a binary contract settles on external API data, any discrepancies—such as a flight diverted to an alternate airport being classified as "Diverted" by the airline but "Cancelled" by an API scraper—can trigger multi-million dollar dispute arbitrations. Under current conditions for route JFK-ORD, data feed discrepancy risk is evaluated at High (82/100).