Macro Presets
3x Jobs Shockwave
Labor Market Counterfactuals
Mechanics & Grounding
When August employment surprised at +312k against a +105k Wall Street consensus, the Federal Reserve’s dual-mandate shifted abruptly toward price stability.
Short-duration yields (2-Year Treasury) rapidly recalibrate to reflect policy inertia or further rate hikes, driving down mortgage affordability, rallying the DXY currency index, and compressing equity valuation multiples.
Sep Implied Action
+25 bps Hike
74% Implied Probability
2-Year Treasury Yield
4.89%
+21 bps Shock
2Y / 10Y Curve Spread
-14 bps
Inverted (-11 bps shift)
DXY Dollar Index
104.35
+0.72% Rally
FOMC September Meeting Implied Distribution
Expected Target: 5.43%
US Treasury Yield Curve (1M to 30Y Tenors)
Blue = Post-Jobs Shock | Dashed = Baseline Consensus
Yield curve flattens aggressively in the front-end (bear-flattening) as traders price out 2026 easing cycles.
Downstream Macro Transmission Matrix
Asset sensitivity calibrated to basis-point adjustment
| Financial Benchmark | Baseline | Post-Shock | Estimated Delta | Channel Transmission Note |
|---|