Why it stays low
Two hard gates are below 30
Hard gates cap the result before sporting upside is counted.
Illustrative scenario, not a forecast
Make the rumor measurable.
Turn transfer excitement into a transparent range, reveal the binding constraint, and know which signal could move the deal.
Base probability
8%
Medium confidence
Low4%
Base8%
High15%
Factor pressure
Trust boundary
Scenario, not certainty
No live data, insider knowledge, betting advice, or verified contract information.
Transparent by design
A probability should show its working.
Selling willingness, player interest, and affordability act as hard gates. Sporting pull and tactical fit improve a viable path, but never erase a commercial dead end. Evidence strength changes uncertainty, not wishful thinking.
Take the reasoning with you