INITIAL TRIAL VERDICT
$495.0M
4.21x punitive multiplier
EXPECTED EXPOSURE (EV)
$279.4M
43.6% discount vs verdict
INTEREST + CARRYING COST
+$79.9M
9% int + bond + legal
DEFENSE SETTLEMENT CAP
$312.8M
Indifference upper bound
Settlement Negotiation Corridor & NPV Indifference Zone
ZOPA: $214.2M — $312.8M
$0M (Full Reversal)
Negotiation Spread: $98.6M
$574.9M (Affirmed + Interest)
Appellate Outcome Probability Tree
Constitutional Remittitur Frontier (State Farm Caps)
Appellate Outcome Matrix & Financial Exposure Breakdown
| Pathway | Probability | Damages Principal | Statutory Interest | Net Branch Exposure | EV Weighted |
|---|