NFL 4th Down Decision Lab & Win Probability Simulator

Live Game Presets & Famous Nick Sirianni Scenarios

Ready to simulate. Adjust down, yardline, or time.

Game State & Leverage

Yardline (Line of Scrimmage) Opp 39 (Ydl 61)

1 = Own 1-yd line, 50 = Midfield, 99 = Opponent 1-yd line.

Yards to Gain (4th & X) 2 yards

Score Margin -3 (Trailing)

Quarter Q4

Seconds Left in Quarter 1:45 (105s)

Offense Timeouts

Kicker Rating

"Brotherly Shove" Sneak Advantage

Increases 4th & 1 short-yardage power conversion to 92%.

Indoor / Calm Conditions

No crosswind or slick turf degradation.

PHILADELPHIA 21

Q4 01:45

4TH & 2 • OPP 39

OPPONENT 24

Drag the football or click anywhere along the field to move the line of scrimmage.

Ball (LOS)

Line to Gain

Goal Line

GO FOR IT 65% Conv

38.4%

WP Win On Conv: 48.2% WP On Failure: 20.1% Expected Points: +1.85

FIELD GOAL 56 yd • 62%

31.2%

WP If Made: 41.0% WP If Missed: 15.4% Expected Points: +1.24

PUNT Net 34 yd

22.8%

Touchback Risk: 38% Opp Field Pos: Own 16 Expected Points: -0.82

ANALYTICS VERDICT: STRONG GO (+7.2% WP LEVERAGE) Break-Even: 44.8%

With 1:45 left trailing by 3, punting surrenders over 15% win probability. Attempting a 56-yard field goal carries a 38% miss rate that gives the opponent immediate midfield possession. Going for it yields highest equity (+7.2% WP advantage over kicking).

Simulate Play Call & Test Your Coaching Execution

Monte Carlo single-play evaluation

Select a call above to run the play simulation and observe clock, yardage, and win probability shift.

Drive Log Initialized Game on the line

Coaching Analytics Science & 4th Down Decision Models

How is Win Probability (WP) calculated on 4th Down?

Win Probability models evaluate historical NFL outcomes for all game states: score margin, quarter, seconds remaining, field position, and timeouts. On 4th down, the expected WP for Go is (Conversion% × WP_converted) + ((1 - Conversion%) × WP_failed). For Field Goal, it compares (Make% × WP_made) + (Miss% × WP_missed) against defensive stop probabilities.

Why do coaches like Nick Sirianni emphasize the "Brotherly Shove"?

On 4th & 1, league-average QB sneaks succeed ~72% of the time, while the Philadelphia Eagles' specialized push technique converted over 91.5% between 2022 and 2024. This structural edge radically expands the "Go" territory on the field, tilting decisions from 4th & 1 at own 35 into positive expected-value situations.

What is the "Conservative Trap" in opponent territory?

Between the opponent's 38 and 45-yard lines (the "dead zone"), punting frequently lands in the end zone for a net of just 20 to 25 yards. The defensive field-position gain of a punt is tiny compared to the ~60% probability of gaining 2-3 yards on 4th down to keep a touchdown drive alive.

When is a Field Goal statistically worse than Punting or Going?

When a long field goal (53+ yards) has less than 65% accuracy in windy weather or late-game deficits, a miss spots the ball at the spot of the kick (7-8 yards behind the LOS). The resulting loss in win probability often exceeds the downside of a turnover on downs from a rush or pass.