Scenario Controls
Projected core vote share for Marine Le Pen (Rassemblement National).
Vote dilution caused by competing centrist/Macronist contenders.
Combined share of LFI, PS, Ecologists, and PCF candidates.
% of eliminated left & independent voters joining republican front.
Net turnout advantage for populist mobilization over centrist base.
Electoral Projections & Second-Round Gap
Electoral Bottleneck & Coalition Mechanism
Under the current baseline, Marine Le Pen commands 36.5% of first-round ballots. With a 14.0% centrist fragmentation penalty, the top centrist contender secures only 22.0%, qualifying for the second round with an acute -11.2% runoff deficit. To reverse the 3,450,210 vote gap, centrist strategists must enforce strict unity or drastically enhance anti-RN voter transfer fidelity above 78%.
Methodology & Source Attribution: Analytical framework derived from reporting by The Economist (@TheEconomist) regarding Marine Le Pen's fourth presidential campaign trajectory and the systemic fragmentation facing France's centrist parties. Turnout baseline modeled on 30,805,446 valid second-round votes across mainland and overseas French departments.