FT-Booth Federal Reserve Rate Policy Poll & Scenario Sandbox

Leading economists surveyed in the FT-Booth poll recommend the Federal Reserve face down political pressure from Donald Trump and raise interest rates for the first time in over three years. Test interest rate shifts and test policy independence against inflation tradeoffs below.

Policy Control Deck

Target Rate Shift (bps) +25 bps

Fed funds rate adjustment. +25 bps marks first hike in 3+ years.

Central Bank Resistance to Executive Pressure 85%

Tolerance against executive interference (Trump administration calls for aggressive cuts).

Core PCE Inflation Baseline 3.2%

Current underlying inflation rate relative to the 2.0% official Fed target.

Current Unemployment Rate 4.1%

Labor market tightness indicator.

Economist Support

72% Economist Majority

FT-Booth panel approval

Independence Score

High (Faced Down Pressure)

Central bank autonomy metric

Policy Stance

Raise Rates (+25 bps)

Rate cycle trajectory

Projected Inflation

Declining toward 2.0% target

18-month trajectory estimate

Projected Macro Trajectory (Next 6 Quarters)

Core Inflation (%) Fed Funds Target (%) Unemployment (%)

Historical Comparison: 3+ Years Since Last Rate Hike

The Federal Reserve initiated aggressive tightening in 2022 to counter generational price spikes, culminating in its last hike in July 2023. While the Fed pivoted toward easing in late 2024, renewed sticky price pressures and executive branch friction prompted top academic and market economists in the FT-Booth survey to argue that a preemptive +25 bps hike is necessary to defend the 2% inflation target.