Fund Liquidity & Regulatory Risk Simulator

Case Context: Inspired by Turkish Capital Markets Board (SPK) probes involving Destek & Tera portfolio funds amid mass redemption cascades. When daily outflows drain liquid tier-1 cash buffers, asset managers face fire-sale haircuts, breaching statutory reserve ceilings and triggering acute criminal liability, including executive travel bans and detentions.

30-Day Liquidity Decay & Regulatory Breach Trajectory

Tera Destek Alpha Fund ($450M AUM)

Remaining AUM ($M)

Liquid Cash Buffer ($M)

Regulatory Breach Threshold ($M)

Daily Outflow Velocity ($M)

Select Stress Test Scenario

Daily Redemption Rate (%) 8.5%

Proportion of net fund capital redeemed by panicking retail & institutional LP investors daily.

Liquid Asset Reserve Ratio (%) 15.0%

Unencumbered cash, repo, and tier-1 sovereign bills instantly available without fire-sale slippage.

Regulatory Alert Threshold (% AUM) 25.0%

Statutory capital adequacy buffer. Dropping below trigger initiates emergency supervisory intervention.

Initial Fund AUM ($ Millions) $450.0M

Baseline assets under management across fixed income and equities before redemption shock.

Executive Regulatory Risk Console

Survival Horizon

11Days

Peak Daily Outflow

$38.25M

Regulatory Breach

Day 4

Capital Depletion

74.5%

Executive Travel Ban Probability	92% Critical
Executive Detention Liability	High Risk
Trading Suspension Risk	Imminent (Day 4)
Asset Liquidation Haircut Rate	14.8% Fire Sale
Illiquid Trapped Assets	$114.75 M

Enforcement Escalation Matrix

Day 1-3: Liquid reserves absorb primary redemptions. Day 4: Alert threshold (25%) breached, notifying market oversight boards. By Day 11, liquid insolvency triggers full freeze, immediate asset seizures, and executive travel restrictions under capital fraud statutes.

Daily Simulation & Audit Telemetry Ledger

30 Recorded Days

Day	Net AUM ($M)	Redemptions ($M)	Liquid Buffer ($M)	Threshold Margin ($M)	Depletion (%)	Regulatory State

Historical Basis & Reference: Case modeling inspired by Bloomberg reporting on Turkish authorities detaining top finance executives at Tera and Destek portfolio managers following acute mass fund outflows and liquidity freezes.

Regulatory frameworks modeled: Capital Markets Board (SPK) liquidity standards, UCITS redemption stress testing, and Basel III liquidity coverage ratio (LCR) decay dynamics.