Energy Policy Desk

Gasoline Price Path & Refining Margin Simulator

Source ground: Axios reporting on energy leadership retail gasoline trajectory uncertainty
Baseline Pump Price
$3.35
National Average / Gal
Q4 Projected Retail Gal
$3.48
+$0.13 vs baseline
Annual Household Outlay Delta
+$156.00
1,200 gals/yr base consumption
Primary Trajectory Driver
Crack spread volatility
Seasonal spec & refinery utilization

Market & Policy Presets

Component Cost Levers

$76.50 / bbl
42 gals/barrel feed. Equivalent to $1.82/gal
$22.00 / bbl
Refining margin & seasonal spec blend. $0.52/gal
$0.48 / gal
Pipelines, trucking, station overhead, and dealer profit.
$0.52 / gal
National weighted average fuel taxes and environmental fees.
1,200 gal/yr

Retail Price Projection Curve (12-Month Horizon)

Current Margins Breakdown Per Gallon

Crude Share: 54.5% ($1.82)
Refining Crack: 15.7% ($0.52)
Dist & Retail: 14.3% ($0.48)
Taxes: 15.5% ($0.52)

Policy Reality: The "Drill Baby Drill" Refinery Ceiling

While federal energy officials often point to domestic upstream drilling to tame prices, U.S. refinery capacity remains near peak utilization (92%+). Without expanded domestic cracking capacity, crude price drops frequently fail to reach pump prices due to sticky crack spreads and environmental seasonal formulations.

12-Month Policy & Trajectory Ledger

Month Projected Retail ($/gal) Crude Share ($/gal) Crack Margin ($/gal) Dist & Tax ($/gal) Uncertainty Range Household Mo. Cost