Global Economic Decoupling Simulator | US Dollar & Trade Settlement Model

Policy & Trade Controls

Scenarios

US Dollar Global Trade Share

Share of bilateral trade invoiced in USD across non-US merchant corridors.

Central Bank Reserve Diversification Rate 3.2%/yr

Annual reallocation of central bank FX reserves toward gold and alternative bilateral currencies.

BRICS+ Alternative Settlement Speed 45.0

Deployment speed of non-SWIFT local-currency clearing systems (mBridge, bilateral ruble/yuan/rupee).

Regional Bloc Cohesion 65.0

Discipline among member states to penalize dollar clearing and enforce tariff barriers.

MODEL STABLE

Adjusted USD Global Share 46.4%

Non-USD Settlement Vol $14.8T +42.1% alternative flow

US Treasury 10Y Yield Delta +42 bps Bond term premium repricing

Trade Fragmentation Index 68.2 (High) High decoupling risk

Bilateral Corridor Flow & Settlement Routing Corridor Velocity: Active

United States & Dollar Hub

European Union (EUR)

BRICS+ Core (CN/RU/IN/BR)

Non-Aligned / Gulf Energy

Bilateral Corridor	Primary Currency	USD Dependency	Non-USD Annual Vol	Vulnerability