Global Refinery Capacity & Fuel Outage Shock Simulator

Bloomberg Intelligence Engine
Operating Parameters US PADD-3 Core
18.2 Mbpd
94.8%
1.0 Mbpd
14 Days
3.8 Mbpd
Global Distillate & Gasoline Supply Arteries CRITICAL_DEFICIT
Distillate Deficit (Mbbl) 14.0 Cumulative supply shortfall
Crack Spread Shock +$12.40/bbl Refining margin expansion
Regional Supply Buffers Days of Supply
Region Base Shock Δ Post
Vulnerability Breakdown

• Latin America: Heavily reliant on US Gulf Coast clean product exports (70%+ import share). Depletion rate is fastest (-5.8 days).

• US East Coast (PADD 1): Pipeline and waterborne deliveries bottlenecked; regional inventories drop by 4.2 days.

• Europe: Diesel-short post-Russian sanctions; reliant on US sweet middle distillates; reserves decline by 2.1 days.

Refinery stress terms follow assigned thresholds and durations

Read the explanation

The source utilization term is utilization minus ninety times point eight, floored at zero. Ninety contributes zero; ninety-five contributes four. Bars share one hundred ten pixels per assigned contribution point. The zero bar is deliberate numeric zero. This threshold is a scenario convention, not validated refinery economics. The source multiplies outage input by four point five. Hypothetical one contributes four point five; two contributes nine. Bars share forty-eight pixels per assigned contribution point. Other terms are added before rounding the final crack-spread spike. Saved capacity and source claims are unverified, and this is not a measured supply shock. The source total deficit multiplies daily shortfall by duration and rounds to one decimal. Hypothetical daily shortfall one million barrels and seven days gives seven million; fourteen days gives fourteen million. Bars share thirty pixels per assumed million barrels. Duration also enters a logarithmic spread contribution separately. No market forecast is asserted. Full JSON/reset and native first-promotion safeguards preserve source behavior.

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