Analytical Framework: Drawing on the Financial Times analysis of critical historical inflection points, this model projects how sudden macro-shocks (geopolitical conflicts, systemic crises, resource constraints) rupture baseline global convergence. Rather than a temporary cyclical dip, severe shocks degrade institutional capital and compound trade friction, permanently altering multi-decade trajectories.
Sources & Grounding: Financial Times Global Affairs • September 11 Vector Baseline • Dynamic Equilibrium Calculations (2001–2026 calibrated).