Goal-Line Turnover EPA Visualizer: Patriots Recovery Impact

Offense Ball Carrier

Loose Ball / Fumble

Patriots Defense

Goal Line Plane

Drag or tap on field to simulate loose ball scramble

Live EPA Swing Dynamics

Net EPA Swing

+5.82

Win Prob Delta

+18.4%

Points Prevented

7.0 pts

Turnover Spot

1-yd line

Fumble Yardline Scrubber 1 yard line

Patriots Return Yards 0 yds (Touchback/Spot)

NFL Goal-Line Analytics

Leverage Assessment: A defensive fumble recovery inside the 1-yard line represents the single largest Expected Points Added swing in regular down-and-distance football.

Baseline Pre-Snap: 1st & Goal from the 1 yields an offensive expected points (EP) value of +6.15 pts.

Post-Recovery Outcome: Defensive recovery for a touchback (or spot at 1-yd line) resets offense EP to +0.33 pts, producing a net defensive swing of +5.82 EPA.