Macro Shock Inputs
Payrolls Surprise (Δ NFP):
+110k
-150k (Deep Miss)
0k (Consensus)
+250k (Major Beat)
Summary: Spot Gold: $2,458.10 | Fed Hike Prob: 68.0%
Instant Transmission Vector Real-time propagation
Projected Spot Gold
$2,458.10
-1.38% (-$34.40)
10Y Real Yield (TIPS)
1.962%
+14.2 bps
Fed Hike Odds (Next Wk)
68.0%
+46.0% reprice
US Dollar Index (DXY)
101.89
+0.48% (+0.49)
1
Labor Data Shock: NFP surprise triggers immediate recalibration of upcoming FOMC policy action.
2
Real Rate Channel: Treasury real yields jump (+14.2 bps), elevating the opportunity cost of holding non-yielding bullion.
3
Dollar Strengthening: A firming DXY (+0.48%) exerts secondary downward pressure on global dollar-denominated gold contracts.
Bullion Real Yield Elasticity Matrix Δ Gold per Yield Expansion
| Real Yield Shift | Implied TIPS Rate | Gold Spot | Net Gold Return | Regime |
|---|
FOMC Next Meeting Target Scenario Federal Funds Rate
25 bps Rate Hike
68.0%
Unchanged / Pause
32.0%
50 bps Jumbo Hike
0.0%
Transmission Rule: For every +10k payroll upside surprise above consensus, markets price ~+4.2% higher probability of an imminent hike and ~+1.29 bps in 10Y TIPS real yields, corresponding to a gold price elasticity of ~ -0.97% per 10 bps real rate advance.