Grammy AOTY Odds Radar: Olivia Dean & Voter Coalition Simulator

Olivia Dean Win Probability 36.8% Polymarket share: 34.0%

Market Arbitrage Delta +2.8% Model vs. implied trader odds

Projected Runner-Up Contender B Pop Frontrunner (31.4%)

Runoff Rounds Required 3 Split-Vote Risk: Moderate (28%)

AOTY Contenders & Market Calibration Adjust trader prices to test model edge

Contender & Work	Polymarket Odds	Critic Score	Model Probability

Preferential Mechanics Note: Unlike simple plurality elections, the Recording Academy's Album of the Year ballot utilizes instant-runoff transfers. 2nd and 3rd preference cross-genre alignment (R&B/Soul into Pop and Craft branches) gives Olivia Dean structural resilience against vote-splitting.

Recording Academy Branch Mixer

Modulate active voter turnout across the ~12,000 eligible Recording Academy voting members.

Instant-Runoff Elimination & Ballot Transfer Simulation Threshold: 50.0% to Win

Polymarket Decentralized Price Dynamics

Polymarket contracts aggregate speculative volume from international retail and crypto traders who frequently over-index on raw Spotify global streaming metrics and social media engagement. Historically, AOTY choices reward cross-branch craft, critical acclaim, and peer respect from producers and session musicians, explaining the model's positive arbitrage premium (+2.8%) on Olivia Dean.

Split-Vote Risk & Cross-Bloc Siphoning

When a genre features multiple strong records (e.g., British Soul / Contemporary R&B and Mainstream Pop), first-place votes fracture. However, Dean's high secondary preference rankings among Rock/Indie and Craft branches allow strong ballot accumulation as lower-tier contenders get eliminated in Rounds 1 & 2.

The award radar normalizes assigned weights and blends modeled rounds

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Read the explanation

The source normalizes each bloc weight by the sum of all entered bloc weights, using one as a fallback denominator for zero total. In a hypothetical two-positive-bloc case with weights twenty and thirty, their normalized shares are forty and sixty percent. Bars share seven point three pixels per normalized percentage point. These are assigned influence weights, not verified award-voter demographics. The source critic multiplier is point seven plus critic score over one hundred times point four. At eighty it gives one point zero two; ninety-four gives one point zero seven six. Bars share four hundred eight pixels per multiplier unit. This explains the actual expression, rather than the nearby one point zero and one point one five comment. Neither saved critic scores nor their effect on voting is independently verified. The source blended share is initial-round share times point four five plus final-round share times point five five. Hypothetical initial point two and final point four give point three one; final point six gives point four two. Bars share one thousand pixels per blended-share unit. The source then rescales every contender by the total blend. These are model assumptions, not calibrated betting probabilities or current market advice. Full JSON/reset, Chart buffers and responsive first-footer checks preserve the tool.