Gridiron Down & Distance Lab

Simulate catastrophic offensive setbacks, compute empirical conversion probabilities, and evaluate EPA loss across extreme drive anomalies.

Current Situation
4th & 43
Ball Location
OWN 11
Conversion Prob
0.4%
Estimated EPA
-3.84
Line of Scrimmage (LOS)
Line to Gain (1st Down)
Backward Setback Trace
Ball Position
Drive Sequence Play Sheet 3 Plays Logged

    4th Down Going-For-It Recommendation

    Empirical success rate for 43 yards to gain:

    < 0.5% (Extreme Anomaly)

    NFL teams facing 4th & 30+ punt 99.1% of the time unless trailing in final 2 minutes. Punting yields an average net field flip of +38.5 yards.

    Expected Points Added (EPA) Swing

    Net drive EPA lost to backward progression:

    -4.72 EPA

    From scoring territory to defense-advantage territory, equivalent to forfeiting more than a field goal.

    Showing Bleacher Report Steelers 4th & 43 sequence.

    How 3rd & 7 Becomes 4th & 43

    In NFL football, massive yardage regression occurs through compounding errors: holding penalties during a scramble, aborted shotgun snaps, multiple quarterback sacks, or deliberate retreats to avoid instant turnovers.

    Bleacher Report highlighted the infamous Steelers collapse where a series of holding calls, personal fouls, and an egregious sack pushed Pittsburgh from comfortably within opponent territory (3rd & 7) all the way back to their own redzone at 4th & 43.

    Mathematical Conversion Modeling

    Historical NFL drive data shows that 3rd & 7 conversions occur approximately 40.8% of the time with an average expected value of +0.88 EPA.

    Once distance to gain exceeds 25 yards, conversion probability falls under 3.2%. At 4th & 40+, historical conversions drop below 0.5%, making an intentional punt or field-position concession virtually mandatory.

    The drive model maps down and distance into assigned scores

    Read the explanation

    The source multiplies exponential distance decay by point seven two for first down and point three eight for fourth down. Bars show those coefficients at five hundred pixels per unit. Calibration comments do not independently establish NFL probability accuracy. The source starts its expected-point approximation at minus one point five and adds yardline over one hundred times seven. Positions twenty-five and fifty contribute one point seven five and three point five points before the intercept and penalties. Bars share one hundred pixels per contribution. This is an assigned approximation, not measured expected points added. For distance at most ten, the source down penalty is down minus one times point seven five. Second and fourth down subtract point seven five and two point two five points. Bars show magnitudes at one hundred eighty pixels per point. Longer distances add another penalty. Full actual text export, genuine reset and responsive first-footer preservation remain checked.

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