Gridiron Draft Trade Value Modeler

Evaluate NFL draft pick packaging, calculate trade equity balance, and stress-test trade leverage across Jimmy Johnson, Rich Hill, and Fitzgerald-Spielberger surplus-value charts.

Historic Precedent:

Jimmy Johnson (Classic) 1991

0 pts

Even trade value

Rich Hill (Modern Consensus) Modern

0 pts

Even trade value

Fitzgerald-Spielberger Surplus

0 pts

Even trade value

Team A: 50.0% Primary Metric: Rich Hill Team B: 50.0%

0 pts

Interactive Draft Board Quick-Assign

Click any pick to cycle: Neutral → Team A → Team B → Neutral.

Front Office Parameters

Primary Valuation Engine

Future Pick Valuation Discount

Front offices discount future-year draft picks by 1 full round or a flat percentage penalty.

One Round Drop Middle of Round

Compensatory Pick Round Equivalent Auto-calculate compensation pick needed to balance trade:

Trade is currently balanced.

Trade Dossier Output

CONFIDENTIAL // WAR ROOM AUDIT

Primary Engine: Rich Hill

Equity Ratio: 50.0% / 50.0%

Net Surplus Pick: Even

Jimmy Johnson Delta: 0 pts

Rich Hill Delta: 0 pts

Loaded Ernie Accorsi 2004 Eli Manning trade scenario.

The Jimmy Johnson Chart

Pioneered by Jimmy Johnson and Mike McCoy with the Dallas Cowboys in the early 1990s. Assigns 3,000 points to Pick #1 down to 0.5 points in Round 7. Heavily skews premium value to top-5 picks. Still quoted during live draft broadcasts.

The Rich Hill Model

Developed by Rich Hill (Pats Pulpit) by reverse-engineering 1,000+ real modern NFL trades from 2012–present. Pick #1 is worth 1,000 points. Represents current front-office market value consensus and linearizes middle-round pick packaging.

Fitzgerald-Spielberger Value

Created by Brad Spielberger and Jason Fitzgerald (OverTheCap). Grounded in historical player career AV (Approximate Value) relative to rookie salary cap surplus. Proves middle and late picks are often undervalued by old charts.

The Ernie Accorsi Principle: "If you don't have a quarterback, nothing else matters. When you see a guy who has that rare pocket poise and championship pedigree, you pay the freight. You do not worry about the extra third-rounder or next year's pick." — Ernie Accorsi (1940–2026), Hall of Fame NFL Executive who drafted John Elway, traded for Eli Manning, and engineered two Super Bowl championship rosters.