Down & Distance
1st & 10
Ball on OWN 25
Expected Points (EP)
+1.82
Net EPA: +0.00
Win Probability (WP)
54.2%
Q4 · 07:45 · Trailing 17-20
Drive Summary
0 Plays
0 yds · 0:00 TOP
Go For It (Conversion)
58.4% WP
Conv prob: 62%. Success yield +2.4 EP; failed turnover yields opponent at 42 yd line.
Field Goal Attempt
51.1% WP
Make prob: 78% (42-yd kick). Net expected points +2.34; miss gives opponent short field.
Punt & Pin (Iowa Way)
47.8% WP
Avg net: 41 yds. Opponent pinned at their 17 yd line (Opponent start EP: -0.42).
Play-by-Play Drive Ledger & EPA Audit

Collegiate Expected Points (EP) Model

Expected Points (EP) calculates the average net points scored by the offense before the next change of possession, parameterized by yardline, down, and distance. Starting at your own 25 averages +1.82 EP; crossing the opponent 20 spikes EP above +4.1.

The Iowa Hawkeye Field Position Paradox

Iowa’s legendary defensive formula suppresses opponent EPA per drive to under 0.9 points. By punting aggressively on 4th-and-short outside field-goal range and relying on Aussie coffin-corner punts, they invert the opponent's starting field position and force 80+ yard drives.

Coverage vs. Concept Leverage

Mesh crossers and shallow drags punish two-high Cover-2 zones by flooding the underneath linebackers. Cover-0 and Cover-3 with stacked 8-man boxes choke interior runs but leave isolated 1-on-1 boundary match-ups vulnerable to deep slot post shots.

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