Storm Parameters

Interactive Sim

Scenario Model

Max Sustained Winds 100 mph (Cat 2)

Forward Motion Speed 14 mph (NW @ 315°)

Track Bearing Angle 315° (Northwest)

Central Barometric Pressure 972 mb

Tropical Storm Wind Extent (34kt) 175 miles

Assessment Waypoint / Sector

Model ready. 5-day forecast track vectors active.

Gulf Coast Radar Vector & Cone of Uncertainty

Hurricane Force (64+ kt) 50-kt Gale Tropical Storm (34 kt) 5-Day Cone

TARGET: SE Louisiana / Mississippi Delta

DISTANCE TO CENTER: 228 NM

EST. TIME TO LANDFALL: 16.3 Hours

RIGHT-FRONT QUADRANT SURGE RISK: HIGH ENVELOPE

Timeline Forecast (+0h)

Critical Prep Window Closes T - 10.2 hrs Onset of 34kt (39mph) winds

Peak Sustained / Gust 95 / 115 mph Category 2 Hurricane

Est. Peak Storm Surge 7 - 11 ft Above ground level at coast

NHC Advisory Tier HURRICANE WARNING 36-hour coastal threat threshold

Hours from Present	Projected Milestone	Local Wind Threshold	Surge Risk Level	Operational Recommendation

Phase Window	Critical Task	Department / Sector Focus	Status
T - 48 to 36 Hours	Clear storm drains, secure outdoor loose infrastructure, fuel generators	Public Works & Facilities	Immediate Action
T - 36 to 24 Hours	Activate mandatory evacuation for coastal surge zones & mobile homes	Emergency Management (EOC)	Mandatory Directive
T - 24 to 12 Hours	Lock storm shutters, stage emergency food/potable water, cease highway work	Residents & First Responders	Final Prep
T - 12 to 0 Hours	Shelter in place inside interior rooms away from windows; bridges close when winds > 40mph	All Coastal Sectors	Shelter in Place

Holland Wind Profile Model Approximates radial wind velocity based on central barometric pressure deficit, ambient air density, and radius of maximum winds (RMW):

V(r) = sqrt((B · ΔP / ρ) · (RMW / r)^B · exp(-(RMW / r)^B))

SLOSH Surge Parametric Envelope Surge amplitude is driven by shallow continental shelf bathymetry along the northern Gulf, forward motion vector, and the right-front quadrant onshore wind shear:

Peak Surge ~ (V_max)^2 · (Shelf Width)^0.3 · cos(θ)

Critical Cutoff Principle All preparatory activities, road evacuations, and outdoor operations must conclude prior to the arrival of sustained 34-knot (39 mph) tropical-storm winds.

Understanding National Hurricane Center (NHC) Coastal Warnings

When the National Hurricane Center issues a Hurricane Warning for areas along the northern Gulf Coast—such as during active tropical systems like Hurricane Isaias—it signals that sustained winds of 74 mph (64 knots) or higher are expected within the specified coastal zone. Unlike a watch, which provides advanced notice to review contingency plans, a warning initiates an immediate, time-sensitive execution of protective measures.

The Rule of 34 Knots (39 MPH): Never wait until hurricane-force winds arrive to evacuate or board windows. Emergency services, drawbridges, and highway transit suspend operations when tropical-storm-force winds (39 mph) onset. All outside preparation must be finished before this threshold is breached.

Hurricane Watch vs. Hurricane Warning: The Strategic Difference

Hurricane Watch: Hurricane conditions are possible within the designated area. NHC issues watches 48 hours in advance of the anticipated onset of tropical-storm-force winds to allow adequate preparation time.
Hurricane Warning: Hurricane conditions are expected within the designated area. NHC issues warnings 36 hours ahead of tropical-storm-force wind onset to ensure critical evacuations can complete in daylight or before hazardous weather renders roads impassable.
Storm Surge Warning: Signifies a life-threatening inundation from rising water moving inland from the shoreline within 36 hours. Storm surge is historically responsible for nearly half of all direct tropical cyclone fatalities in the United States.

The Cone of Uncertainty: Common Misconceptions

The official NHC forecast track cone represents the probable track of the center of a tropical cyclone formed by enclosing an area bounded by ellipses in which approximately two-thirds (60-70%) of historical forecast errors over the previous 5-year period fall.

Crucially, the cone does not indicate the size of the storm, nor does it mean areas outside the shaded cone are safe. Hazardous conditions—including damaging gale-force winds, storm surge, tornadic rain bands, and freshwater flooding—routinely extend 150 to 250 miles beyond the geometric center. In the Gulf of Mexico, the shallow continental shelf magnifies storm surge on the right-front quadrant of approach, even for coastal communities 80 miles east of the official landfall coordinate.

Frequently Asked Questions on Gulf Coast Hurricane Preparedness

What should coastal residents do immediately when a Hurricane Warning is declared?

First, confirm your municipal evacuation zone (A, B, C, or D). If you reside in a mandatory surge evacuation zone or mobile/manufactured housing, execute your evacuation route immediately. If staying outside evacuation zones, install hurricane shutters, secure all exterior items, fill bathtubs and containers with potable water, ensure vehicles are fully fueled, and verify battery-powered NOAA weather radio frequencies.

Why is the right-front quadrant of a hurricane significantly more hazardous in the Gulf?

Hurricanes in the Northern Hemisphere rotate counterclockwise. On the eastern or right-hand side of the storm's track, the storm's forward motion vector adds directly to the rotating rotational winds, creating higher net sustained winds. In the northern Gulf Coast, this right-front quadrant pushes massive volumes of seawater directly onto the shallow continental shelf, producing peak storm surge inundation.

How is the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale calculated?

The Saffir-Simpson Scale classifies tropical cyclones into five categories based solely on maximum sustained 1-minute surface winds at 10 meters elevation: Category 1 (74–95 mph), Category 2 (96–110 mph), Category 3 (111–129 mph - Major), Category 4 (130–156 mph - Major), and Category 5 (157+ mph). It does not measure storm surge, rainfall volume, or forward motion speed, which is why a Category 1 storm can still produce catastrophic surge.

How do I interpret wind radii on the interactive map?

The map depicts three wind radii: the outer yellow perimeter shows the extent of 34-knot (39 mph) tropical-storm winds; the middle orange ring shows 50-knot (58 mph) gale winds; and the inner red ring highlights the 64-knot (74+ mph) hurricane core. The time when the outer yellow ring reaches your coastal sector marks your deadline to finish outdoor preparations.

Can this workbench output be integrated into emergency management planning?

Yes. You can export a comprehensive Emergency Action Brief formatted with current coordinates, calculated wind radii, estimated surge envelopes, and preparation cutoff milestones by clicking the "Export Brief" button. Always verify with official National Hurricane Center (nhc.noaa.gov) and local National Weather Service advisories for active life-safety orders.