Hawaii Hurricane Lowell Storm Track & Pacific Impact Modeler

State of Emergency Active
Basin: Central Pacific (CPHC) El Niño Anomaly: +2.2°C Cycle: Storm 3 of 3 (Week 3)
Hurricane Lowell (Category 4 Major Hurricane)
Sim Forecast: Monday 14:00 HST
Major Hurricane Wind Swath (115+ mph)
Tropical Storm Force Swath (39-73 mph)
Forecast Cone of Uncertainty (96-hr)
Past Storm Tracks (Hector, Ivana)
Forecast Scrub: Hour 62 (Monday 14:00 HST - Peak Approach) 55 mi SW of Kauai
Fri 00:00 (H0) Sat 12:00 (H36) Sun 18:00 (H50) Mon 14:00 (H62) Tue 23:00 (H96)
PRESETS:
Island Impact & Surge Matrix Kauai & Niihau
Max Peak Storm Surge
7.4 ft
Accumulated Rainfall
14.8 in
Max Sustained Wind
135 mph
Peak Wind Gusts
160 mph
SELECT TARGET ISLAND ZONE:
Scenario Counterfactuals
El Niño SST Ocean Anomaly: +2.2°C (Supercharged)
Central Pressure (Intensity): 948 mb (Category 4)
Track Latitude Steering Offset: 0.0° (Direct Western Passage)
Emergency Timeline & Triggers
Earliest TS Wind Arrival: Sunday 18:00 HST
Peak Closest Approach: Monday 14:00 HST (55 mi SW of Kauai)
Soil Moisture Saturation: 94% (High Flood Vulnerability)
Vulnerability Tier: High / State of Emergency Confirmed
3-Week Supercharged Pacific El Niño Storm Sequence Consecutive Hawaii Threat Cycle

Three consecutive storms within 21 days have saturated island watersheds and amplified coastal wave energy, removing soil absorption capacity prior to Hurricane Lowell's arrival.

Week 1 • Passed South
Tropical Storm Hector
Track: Passed 180 mi South of Big Island
Rainfall Contribution: +4.2 in
Baseline Saturated Ground: Initial Watershed Fill
Week 2 • Channel Brush
Hurricane Ivana (Cat 2)
Track: Kaiwi Channel swell generator
Rainfall Contribution: +6.1 in
Pre-existing Soil Saturation: 78% statewide
Week 3 • ACTIVE EMERGENCY
Hurricane Lowell (Cat 4)
Current Intensity: 135 mph / 948 mb
Western Islands Impact Window: Sun PM - Tue AM
Flash Flood Threat: Critical (Combined 14.8+ in)
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