Healthcare Risk Pool & Single-Payer Simulator

Scenario Presets

Population Demographics

Healthy Population (%) 75%

Chronic Conditions (%) 20%

High Risk / Severe (%) 5%

Policy Mechanics

Multi-Payer Admin Drag (%) 17.0%

Single-Payer Admin Drag (%) 3.0%

Community Rating Strictness High

Average Annual Cost

Healthy Individual $1,200

Chronic Individual $8,500

High Risk Individual $45,000

Single-Payer Per Capita $3,810 3.0% Admin overhead drag

Multi-Payer Avg Premium $4,820 17.0% Private admin overhead

Adverse Spiral Threshold $6,100 Healthy dropout break-even

System Single-Payer Savings $101,000,000 Net admin & pool efficiency

D3 Population Risk Tank Simulation

Healthy

Chronic

High Risk

Health System Structural Matrix

System Architecture	Average Premium / Per Capita	Admin Overhead Drag	Uninsured / Uncompensated Rate	Risk Pool Stability
Universal Single-Payer (Medicare for All)	$3,810 / yr	3.0%	0.0% (Universal)	Maximum Stability
Multi-Payer Commercial Hybrid	$4,820 / yr	17.0%	8.2%	Moderate Risk
Cash / Uninsured Direct Model	$14,250 (Unpooled avg exposure)	0.0% Direct	100.0% Uninsured	Extreme Volatility

Economic Risk Pooling Insights

Single-payer universality eliminates market segmentation and adverse selection, lowering administrative overhead drag from 17.0% to 3.0% and yielding total population savings of $101,000,000.