College Football Analytical Model

WR Heisman Benchmark & Trajectory Model

Inspired by @PardonMyTake • Jeremiah Smith Breakout vs. DeVonta Smith & Historic WR Heisman Standards
Jeremiah Smith 12-Game Trajectory Controls Ohio State Buckeyes
Target Share 31.5%
Receptions Per Game 7.5 rec/g
Yards Per Reception 17.2 ypr
Red Zone TD Conversion Rate 28.0%
Schedule Difficulty Adjustment (vs Top 25 Defenses) Neutral (1.00x)
Projected Rec
90
Projected Yds
1,548
Projected TDs
18
Heisman Index
94.2
Pacing at 1,548 yards and 18 TDs puts Jeremiah Smith above the modern consensus threshold for an invite to New York City.
Cumulative Receiving Yards Trajectory 12 Games Cumulative
Jeremiah Smith (Simulated)
DeVonta Smith 2020 Winner
Larry Fitzgerald 2003
Consensus NYC Cutoff (1,400y)
Historic WR Heisman Milestone Matrix Click row to benchmark against
Player (Year) Games Rec Yds TDs YPR Result
Heisman Profile Comparison Radar vs DeVonta Smith 2020
Jeremiah Smith (Projected)
Selected Historical Legend
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