Deterministic Model Canonical Result Matrix
Daily Stranded Crude:
5.82 mbpd
Freight Rate Spike:
+215%
Global Seaborne Share Impact:
Highest Exposure Region:
East Asia (78% of eastbound Hormuz crude)
East Asia Destination Exposure
Eastbound: ~82%
Over 80% of crude transiting Hormuz is bound for Asian refining hubs with limited immediate alternative seaborne substitutes.
China (Direct & Disputed Blend)
2.62 mbpd deficit
India (Short-haul Arabian Gulf)
1.57 mbpd deficit
Japan (Over 85% Persian Gulf dependent)
1.05 mbpd deficit
South Korea (Ulsan/Yeosu Refineries)
0.58 mbpd deficit
VLCC Tanker Economics
Worldscale WS 195
War-risk breach premiums charged by London Joint War Committee (JWC) underwriters combined with demurrage delays.
Baseline Persian Gulf - Far East Rate
$40,800 / day
Disruption Daily Spot Tanker Rate
$128,500 / day
Additional War-Risk Cargo Insurance
+$1.48 / barrel
Cape of Good Hope Diversion Delay
+14 to 18 transit days
Bypass Pipeline Limits
Max Spare: ~4.44 mbpd
Physical pipelines bypassing Hormuz cannot absorb the complete 20.5 mbpd baseline flow if interdiction escalates beyond 25%.
Saudi Petroline (Yanbu Red Sea)
2.21 / 2.94 mbpd utilized
UAE ADCOP (Fujairah Gulf of Oman)
1.20 / 1.50 mbpd utilized
Total Bypass Throughput
3.41 mbpd
Unrelieved Chokepoint Deficit
5.82 mbpd