ELEVATED WAR RISK

Hormuz Chokepoint Transit & Global Supply Shock Simulator

Strait Transit 8.2 mbpd
Stranded Deficit 6.1 mbpd
War Insurance +420%
Spot Shock +$24.40 /bbl
Tactical Nautical Chart: Strait of Hormuz, Persian Gulf & Gulf of Oman
Inbound TSS Outbound TSS IRGC Coast Patrol Zone Bypass Terminals
IRAN Bandar Abbas Naval Base SAUDI ARABIA / UAE OMAN Musandam (OM) IRGC Naval Patrol Envelope CHOKEPOINT GATE (21 nm) Fujairah Terminal (ADCOP ~1.5 mbpd) ← Saudi Petroline (Yanbu / Red Sea) PERSIAN GULF GULF OF OMAN To Arabian Sea / Indian Ocean →
Bypass Pipeline Allocation 85% Utilized
5.3 mbpd diverted

ADCOP (Fujairah) capacity: 1.5 mbpd. Saudi Petroline spare cap: ~4.7 mbpd. Residual Hormuz demand cannot be bridged.

Global Oil Flow Shock 30% Choked
6.1 mbpd net un-diverted deficit

Baseline baseline strait volume: 20.5 mbpd (~100 tankers weekly). Stranded crude triggers immediate Brent prompt spread spikes.

Multilateral Vulnerability & Strategic Reserve Buffer Matrix
Real-time demand disruption metrics
Consumer Economy Hormuz Inflow (mbpd) Effective Deficit (mbpd) Strategic Reserve (SPR) Reserve Depletion Runway Vulnerability Tier
Scenario Presets Calibrated models
Transit Posture / Chokepoint Gate 40% Disrupted
Lloyd's / Joint War-Risk Surcharge +420% Premium
Hull breach warranties: At >500% underwriters invoke cancellation clauses.
Bypass Pipeline Operating Push 85% Utilized
ADCOP (Fujairah 1.5 mbpd) + Saudi East-West Petroline (to Yanbu).
Naval Protection Envelope
Sanction Leakage & Dark Fleet 1.6 mbpd Active
Chinese teapot & non-dollar insured barter trades circumventing Western bans.
Analytical Intelligence Brief:

Underwriters have activated the War-Risk Clause. While Iran lacks the continuous surface fleet to physically dam the 21-nautical-mile strait, maritime commercial insurers have rendered commercial transit unviable for Western-flagged VLCCs without sovereign war guarantees.