Rerouted Pipeline Capacity
9.45
mbpd
Diverted via Petroline / Fujairah
Unmitigated Supply Deficit
11.55
mbpd
Global Net Deficit Off Market
Estimated Brent Spike
+$
24.50
+32.7% Shock Premium
Projected Brent Price
$
99.50
Per Barrel Landed
Total Global Economic Impact
$
482.5
B
Over 30-Day Disruption
Middle East Maritime Chokepoint & Bypass Schematic
Blocked Tanker Transit (Hormuz)
East-West Petroline (Yanbu)
Fujairah Bypass (Gulf of Oman)
Maritime Shipping Economics
VLCC Daily Spot
| Freight & Transit Indicator | Scenario Value |
|---|---|
| Baseline VLCC Charter Rate | $42,000 / day |
| Stressed VLCC Charter (War Risk) | $189,000 / day |
| Cape of Good Hope Diversion Delay | +16 to +20 days |
| Additional Bunker Fuel per Voyage | +$840,000 |
| Daily Seaborne Disruption Value | $1.15 B / day |
Global Petroleum Balance Shock
IEA/EIA Benchmark
| Supply Balance Metric | Calculated Impact |
|---|---|
| Total World Petroleum Demand | 102.8 mbpd |
| Share of Global Seaborne Oil Blocked | 20.4% |
| Effective Bypass Mitigation Rate | 45.0% |
| Strategic Petroleum Reserve (SPR) Draw Potential | 3.5 mbpd (max 90d) |
| Net Residual Market Shortfall | 11.55 mbpd |
Executive Energy Risk Assessment Export
Download complete simulation parameters, transit deficit calculations, and projected macroeconomic impact data.