Strait of Hormuz Maritime Risk & Transit Impact Analyzer

CHOKEPOINT: 26°34'N 56°15'E

BASE FLOW: 20.5 M bpd

RISK LEVEL: HIGH / ESCALATED

ACTIVE INCIDENTS: 2 ADNOC Vessels

ADNOC Vessel Security Alert

Targeted assault reported on 2 commercial tankers in the inbound TSS corridor. Zero casualties reported. Vessel speed restricted.

Operational Security Posture SELECT PROFILE

Logistics & Economic Impact DYNAMIC PROJECTION

Strait Daily Volume Deficit

19.0 M bpd

Net unmitigated transit disruption

ADCOP Bypass Utilization

100%

1.5M bpd Fujairah overland flow

War Risk Surcharge Added

+$0.82 / bbl

Hull War Risk: 0.75%

Cape Reroute Voyage Penalty

+14.2 Days

+$2.15M Charter Add-on

HABSHAN-FUJAIRAH PIPELINE (ADCOP) LOAD FACTOR 1.50 / 1.50 M bpd

HABSHAN INTAKE FUJAIRAH TERMINAL EXPORT

Transit Surcharge & Route Variables CALIBRATE MODEL

Hull War Risk Insurance Rate (% of Vessel Value) 0.75%

VLCC Charter Day Rate (USD/Day) $65,000

Cape of Good Hope Diversion Extra Transit (Days) 14 Days

Maritime Tactical Intelligence Log VERIFIED REPORTS

03:40 UTC INCIDENT CONFIRMED: UAE Ministry of Foreign Affairs confirms drone/missile attack targeting 2 ADNOC commercial tankers in Hormuz TSS inbound lane. Zero casualties.

03:55 UTC PIPELINE MOBILIZATION: Abu Dhabi National Oil Co (ADNOC) ramps Habshan-Fujairah ADCOP pipeline to max design capacity (1.5M bpd) for direct Gulf of Oman loading.

04:12 UTC INSURANCE NOTICE: Joint War Committee (JWC) updates Listed Areas for Arabian Gulf and Strait of Hormuz, triggering heightened breach notification surcharges.